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金沙娱乐手机版:The bond market is like a spring night. How do we view the current bond market recovery?

时间:2018/4/26 19:07:49  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: Since the beginning of this year, the equity market has continued to oscillate, and the bond market has ushered in a long absence of “sprin...

Since the beginning of this year, the equity market has continued to oscillate, and the bond market has ushered in a long absence of “springtime”. The yield on China's 10-year government bonds has continued to decline, and has fallen from last year's highest over 4% to 3.5%. , Silver China's outstanding , and , the fund's outstanding performance led the market.

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How to look at the current bond market recovery?

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Is the bond configuration window open?

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Fund Manager Zou Weina pointed out:

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“At the beginning of 2018, we accurately predicted that the funds will be changed to be significantly loose. We are optimistic about the bond market and are optimistic about the bond assets. We actively configured them in the first quarter, earning . Have higher returns and perform well."

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Three-dimension diagnostic bond market: "Debt bull" pattern open

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In Zou Weina's opinion, the bond market for bond market from the perspective of three-dimensionality has been opened.

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First dimension - Basics

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The monetary indicators, as leading indicators of the economy, play a role of wind vane in investment. Since 2012, the leading position of social financing indicators has become increasingly important. Zou Weina thinks that from the perspective of the whole year of 2018, the year-on-year growth of social capital is expected to decline, indicating that there is downward pressure on the macro economy. Such fundamentals can support the bond market.

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Second dimension - Regulatory level

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Zou Weina believes that the overall framework of strong supervision for leverage and risk prevention is basically formed this year, and the market is basically digesting expectations for strong supervision. The establishment of the Financial Stability Bureau will exert greater control over financial stability and supervision. The market will become more standardized in the future. This environment also helps maintain the stability of currency liquidity, and the capital will gradually improve on the margin.

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Third dimension - Valuation level

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Zou Weina said that before, bond yields had reached the top in 2007-2008 and 2011, and especially in 2013 it reached the top of the higher, but the market environment at that time faced double tensions of supervision and currency. At the end of 2017, bond yields were virtually the same as at the top of 07/08 and 11 years. At present, the market has already fully expected strict supervision, and the capital shortage is not serious, so bond yields are difficult to hit at the top of 13 years under normal circumstances.

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Based on the above three points and outlook outlook, Zou Weina believes that the economy will continue to show a slow downward trend. The central bank’s monetary policy will shift from neutral to tight, neutral or even loose, and the bond bull market pattern has opened. Since the beginning of the year, bond yields have dropped significantly, and subsequent bond market volatility may increase, but the long-term pattern remains good. The current level of absolute bond yields is still relatively high and has a good allocation value. In the future bull market, bond assets will obtain relatively good investment returns.


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